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Accurate forecasting has always mattered to repair shops and auto mechanics, but ADAS makes it even more consequential. Calibration volume is rising and OEM requirements are more complicated than ever. You need accurate foresight to map out your schedule, select equipment, and train your technicians.
This article explains how you can use your current repair mix and ADAS market data to forecast your future ADAS volume.
The reality of ADAS calibration demand: From ADAS camera calibration to V2X service
Yes, ADAS is rapidly expanding, but it’s worth knowing how fast and how that will impact your shop’s operations.
To answer this question, you first need to ask two questions:
- What are the most common ADAS calibrations right now?
- What types of calibrations are on the horizon?
You’ve likely already got vehicles in your bay that have ADAS features relying on forward-facing cameras, radars, and blind-spot systems, such as Forward Collision Warning (FCW) and Blind Spot Monitoring (BSM). These are foundational ADAS components and will continue to be important, but specs may tighten as technology improves.
Beyond these ADAS features, you can expect integration of Vehicle-to-Everything (V2X), advanced Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC), and other capabilities related to autonomous vehicle systems. In fact, 90% of new vehicles are expected to have some level of autonomous features by 2030.
Calibration volume is increasing and OEM procedure requirements are tightening due to federal regulations, insurance requirements, and manufacturers competing to put the safest vehicles on the road. For your shop, this means more ADAS work, but it also indicates the need for tighter documentation, better trained staff, and the proper investment in equipment and processes.
Evaluating your current ADAS volume
Read on to see how you can evaluate your current ADAS volume.
Step 1: Identify your current repair mix
This process is very data intensive, so this is a good test of your shop’s organization and documentation skills. To accurately characterize your current repair mix, you should identify and categorize the different types of repairs that you’ve recently conducted.
If you use an auto repair estimate program or keep tight records, you can extract repair order volume from the last six to 12 months to get a good picture of your mix.
With this data, identify any high-frequency repairs that trigger ADAS service. This includes:
- Windshield replacement
- Front/rear bumper repair
- Suspension & steering repairs
- Wheel alignments
- Structural collision repairs
It’s also helpful to break this data down into segments like make, model, and model year to more efficiently characterize which vehicles frequent your shop most often. Here, filtering for newer vehicles post-2018 provides valuable insight into future ADAS nights.
Step 2: Calculate your current ADAS attachment rate
Now that you have a list of common repairs and potential ADAS triggers, find your ADAS attachment rate. This rate is your percentage of repairs that require ADAS calibration.
This rate is found simply with the formula:
(Repairs requiring ADAS calibration ÷ Total number of repairs) x 100 = ADAS attachment rate
Use this formula for each month over the past six to 12 months to help determine your baseline monthly calibration volumes. With this data, you can identify trends, such as increasing ADAS work volume.
Step 3: Evaluate how ADAS market growth will affect your shop
Combining your personal shop trends with wider market data helps you evaluate just how your shop will be externally affected.
You already know that FMVSS 127 will make Autonomous Emergency Braking (AEB) standard on new vehicles by 2029, for example. Individual states are also continuing to pass ADAS-related regulations that will eventually impact your operations.
New vehicle technology penetration means one thing: the increasing trend of ADAS work you are experiencing will continue. Applying conservative annual growth percentages to your current ADAS attachment rate tells the same story.
Nevertheless, you need to prepare for any outcome by modeling low, mid, and high ADAS growth scenarios. With each of these, estimate what type of investment you’d need to make to stay competitive. This includes staff training, tools and equipment, and adapting your facility for the potential changes.
Revenue modeling for ADAS calibration
Forecasting ADAS calibration work should also involve forecasting potential revenue alongside costs.
Using the same shop data from earlier, you can apply your average ticket price to projected future volume to estimate monthly and annual revenue potential.
Your current ADAS sublet vs in-house mix is also an important factor in determining how your revenue will fare in the future. Lost margin on sublet work is already substantial, and if you fail to invest now, you risk falling further behind other shops.
According to our survey of 300 shops, those that are outsourcing at least one ADAS calibration feature are spending $23,990 annually on sublets, whereas shops that perform in-house generate $21,509 per month in ADAS revenue on average. This gap is bound to widen.
Initial equipment investment averages around $55,000 for shops starting from scratch, which understandably makes some shops hesitate. But run that against your revenue projections and your current sublet spend, and the break-even point usually comes into focus quickly.
Operational planning with the ADAS maturity curve
If your forecasts point to more ADAS and more revenue opportunities (as they likely do), you need to react accordingly. Increasing ADAS volume means you may benefit from the following:
- Enhanced facility requirements
- Dedicated ADAS spaces
- Level floors
- Controlled lighting and temperature
- Proper equipment and software
- Vin-based ADAS identification software, such as Revv
- Up-to-date and OEM-approved scan tools and target boards
- Accurate estimation platforms
- Technician training and certification
- OEM-approved procedures and documentation standards
- ASE L4 certification
- Adaptive and flexible staff
The specific steps you need to take depend on where your shop sits on the ADAS maturity curve, which runs from Stage 1 (fully outsourced, reactive) through Stage 5 (calibration as a standalone business line, receiving sublet work from other shops in the area).
Most shops currently sit somewhere in the middle. They've invested in dedicated space, equipment, and trained technicians, but haven't built the processes to match. The result is paying Stage 3 or 4 costs while capturing Stage 2 revenue. It's the most expensive place to be.
Your forecast should tell you which stage your market actually demands. A shop in a lower-volume market may be well-served at Stage 3. A large shop in a metro area may need Stage 4 or 5 to stay competitive. In either case, the investment priorities are the same: facility setup, equipment and software, and technician training and certification. What changes is the scale and timeline.
Not sure where your shop currently sits? Revv's ADAS Calibration Maturity Assessment can help you identify your stage and figure out what the gap to the next level actually costs.
Common forecasting mistakes to avoid
Forecasts that overestimate can lead to inefficient allocation of resources, wasted time, and can be costly. Meanwhile, underestimating can also leave you unprepared and be detrimental to the future of your business.
You want to address all available market data to accurately model your forecasts. Look at planned legislation and regulation in all jurisdictions that apply to you, consider what industry experts are saying, and pay attention to manufacturer trends. Keep a close eye on your shop’s internal data as well to notice slight trends impacting you.
Never ignore vehicle penetration as a trend, even if some designs fail to catch on, it’s better to be safe than sorry. Don’t assume that calibration demand will plateau either, as there are plenty of ADAS-related systems on the horizon.
Turning data into strategic growth
This forecasting framework can be reassessed as often as you deem fit. Quarterly updates at the minimum will help you keep a close watch on trends. And since ADAS is shifting from optional service to a core revenue category, you need to be prepared.
Gain a competitive advantage with Revv, which can help you enhance your current ADAS workflow with instant access to up-to-date VIN-specific calibrations. With Revv, your shop gains:
- Instant VIN-based identification of any needed ADAS calibrations
- Accurate logging of all your ADAS services
- Constantly updated OEM guidelines
Want to learn more about the future of ADAS and what it means for your shop? Set up a call with one of our ADAS experts so you can learn more about how to adequately react to your ADAS forecast.
